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Saturday, April 26, 2008

Martin Hilbert's material


Martin works in Latin America on the CEPAL Information Society programme, which used Delphi methods - POLICY DELPHI rather than conventional forecasts - to explore this topic.

Publications and documentation (mostly in Spanish and Portuguese as far as I can see) are on the ELAC pages at CEPAL, but Martin has his own range of publications at pages such as: http://martinhilbert.net/papers.html


Including: such as -

October 2007

October 2005
Information Society Series No. 6, ECLAC Project documents, LC/W.31, http://www.cepal.org/SocInfo



Latin America on its path into the digital age: where are we?
June 2001
Productive Development Series ECLAC, No. 104, LC/L.1555-P/I, ISBN: 92-1-121309-6;


From Industrial Economics to Digital Economics: An Introduction to the Transition
February 2001
Productive Development Series ECLAC, No. 100, LC/L.1497-P/I, ISBN: 92-1-121297-9;

WORK IN PROGRESS

November 2007 (submitted)
"Deepening comprehension of the digital paradigm"

ABSTRACT: In order to contribute to the better comprehension of the digital paradigm, the article tackles two basic questions: What are the main features and trends of the evolution of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT)? How much digital information have they produced? Four insights stand out...

"The need to refocus the over-hasty blind date between inadequate democratic institutions and immature information technology"
October 2007 (submitted)

ABSTRACT: ...Going beyond the traditional notions of e-voting and online transparency, the article explores how ICT can be used more effectively to tackle longstanding challenges of political institutions, such as the trade-off between the size of the deliberating group and the thoroughness with which the democratic will of each participant is expressed...

and look at the other pages too.

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Technical Report on a Foresight Training Course

"This report provides an overview of a methodological approach designed in two Modules tailored to increase the learning effect and awareness rising of Foresight in New Members States and Candidate Countries (NMS and CC). A better understanding on how to best transmit Foresight knowledge and which methodological approaches can effectively contribute to this end is regarded to be a major milestone in enabling Foresight to be widespread used as a policy informing and facilitating instrument. Such methodological approach should therefore be further tested, improved and adapted both to the specific contexts and current challenges of individual countries in order to facilitate Foresight in NMS and CC."

(This is quite a helpful Foresight handbook in its own right)

(note: I found this while trying to track down the SWAMI project pages on IPTS - they have been moved and take some finding - good scenario work).


Tuesday, April 15, 2008

OZ 2020 

major Foresight initiative?

Australia 2020 - About the Summit

lots of background papers available if you burrow down from themes.

"The Prime Minister of Australia Kevin Rudd will convene an Australia 2020 Summit at Parliament House on 19 and 20 April to help shape a long term strategy for the nation’s future.



The
Summit will bring together some of the best and brightest brains from
across the country to tackle the long term challenges confronting
Australia’s future –challenges which require long-term responses from
the nation beyond the usual three year electoral cycle.


To
do this, the Government will bring together 1000 leading Australians to
the national Parliament to debate and develop long-term options for the
nation across 10 critical areas:



  1. The Productivity Agenda – education, skills, training, science and innovation
  2. The Future of the Australian Economy
  3. Population, sustainability, climate change and water
  4. Future directions for rural industries and rural communities
  5. A
    long-term national health strategy – including the challenges of
    preventative health, workforce planning and the ageing population
  6. Strengthening communities, supporting families and social inclusion
  7. Options for the future of indigenous Australia
  8. Towards a creative Australia: the future of the arts, film and design
  9. The
    future of Australian governance: renewed democracy, a more open
    government (including the role of the media), the structure of the
    Federation and the rights and responsibilities of citizens
  10. Australia’s future security and prosperity in a rapidly changing region and world.

Participants
will be selected by a 10 member non-government Steering Committee. The
Summit will be co-chaired by the Prime Minister and Professor Glyn
Davis, Vice Chancellor of the University of Melbourne.


This
Steering Committee will select up to 100 participants in each of the
Summit areas who will attend in a voluntary capacity. The participants
will be drawn from business, academia, community and industrial
organisations, the media and include a number of individual eminent
Australians. Summit participants will be invited in their own right
rather than as institutional representatives from any particular
organisation. Each of the 10 Summit areas will be co-chaired by a
Federal Government Minister and a member of the Steering Committee.


The Summit will have the following objectives:


  • To harness the best ideas across the nation
  • To
    apply those ideas to the 10 core challenges that the Government has
    identified for Australia – to secure our long-term future through to
    2020
  • To provide a forum for free and open public debate in which there are no predetermined right or wrong answers
  • For each of the Summit’s 10 areas to produce following the Summit options for consideration by government
  • For
    the Government to produce a public response to these options papers by
    the end of 2008 with a view to shaping the nation’s long-term direction
    from 2009 and beyond.

In providing
this response, the Government in providing may accept some options and
reject others – but will provide its reasons for embracing its course
of action for the future.


The Government has no interest
in a talkfest. The Government’s interest is in harnessing and
harvesting ideas from the community that are capable of being shaped
into concrete policy actions.


Government, irrespective
of its political persuasion, does not have a monopoly on policy wisdom.
To thrive and prosper in the future we need to draw on the range of
talents, ideas and energy from across the Australian community."



cordis reports 



CORDIS: Science and Technology Foresight
"Foresight Reports ... relevant for both, policy-makers at all levels and the foresight research community at large, in order to exploit foresight knowledge produced in Europe and elsewhere.



Outlook report "Europe in the global research landscape" (EUR 22956)

The report presents an economic and prospective analysis on the consequences for Europe of an intensified globalisation of knowledge production and R&D. The report addresses the current relative position of Europe in science and technology, the capabilities of Europe to respond to emerging global markets and societal demands, as well as the changing knowledge production strategies inside Multi National Enterprises. The report goes beyond the triad to include as well emerging research-intensive economies, such as China, India, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, etc. The ambition is to highlight essential trends impacting on European research policies.
PDF (1,31 MB): en


Prospective studies of the Foresight S&T Knowledge Sharing Platform :

"Changing professions in 2015 and beyond" (March 2006)
PDF (1,31 KB): en



"The future of R&D in services: implications for EU research and innovation policy" (March 2006)
PDF (567 KB): en

(That's me folks)

"Scenarios for future scientific and technological developments in developing countries 2005-2015"
PDF (1,91 MB):en



"Emerging science and technology priorities in public research policies in the EU, the US and Japan"
PDF (1,08 MB):en



"Using Foresight to improve the science-policy relationship"
PDF (1,82 MB) :en


"The future of Key Research Actors in the European Research Area: Working papers" (EUR 22962)
The expert group on the future of key actors produced a series of eight working documents, which focus on the different actors relevant to the European Research system. The papers identify the key future trends in knowledge production, assess the relative importance of the actors in knowledge production within society, and develop scenarios on the future of the actors. The eight documents were published all together as "working papers".
PDF (6 MB) : en



"The future of Key Research Actors in the European Research Area: Synthesis paper" (EUR 22961)
The synthesis paper (EUR 21962) presents an analysis of the various individual reports and provides scenarios on the future of knowledge production in the European Research Area of 2020, as well as policy options on how to best adapt to future trends and changes in knowledge production in our society.
PDF (789 KB) : en



"Creative system disruption: towards a research strategy beyond Lisbon" (2005)
This is the report on the conference from the high level Expert Group on "Key technologies" held in Brussels on 20 September 2005.
PDF: en

"Converging Technologies for a Diverse Europe" (2004)
This is the report on the conference from the high level Expert Group on "Foresighting the New Technology Wave" held in Brussels on 14-15 September 2004.
PDF: en



"Converging Technologies - Shaping the Future of European Societies" (2004)
This report is the final contribution resulting from the works of the high level Expert Group on "Foresighting the New Technology Wave" . It builds on the group's discussions, on individual written contributions, on the group's scenario exercise and of reports by four subgroups. It provides a definition and likely applications of Converging Technologies for the European Knowledge Society (CTEKS), their economic opportunities, disruptive potential and risks and presents recommendations for action.
PDF: en - fr - de


"Foresight and the Transition to Regional Knowledge-based Economies - Synthesis report" (October 2004)
Of the expert group "Blueprints for Foresight Actions in the Regions" present the context and summary of the work of the expert group set up in December 2003, a review of European policies and global drivers affecting the regions, the rationale for foresight, as well as conclusions and policy recommendations from the work.
PDF: en

"Foresight and the Transition to Regional Knowledge-based Economies - Policy orientation report" (October 2004)
Of the expert group "Blueprints for Foresight Actions in the Regions" is specially directed at policy makers at regional, national and European level and synthesises the arguments for regional foresight and the policy recommendations.
PDF: en

"Measures to improve Higher Education/Research Relations in order to strengthen the strategic basis of the ERA" (November 2003)
This report is the final output of a 2nd High-Level Expert Group, which worked during eight month building on scenarios proposed in the first report. A set of recommendations was designed aiming at proposing concrete actions to the Commission and the Members Countries to support the strengthening of the European Research Area in the area of Higher Education and Research. These recommendations have also been used as an input for the Conference "Europe of Knowledge 2020: A Vision for University-Based Research and Innovation" held in Liège in April 2004.
PDF: en



"The potential of regional foresight" (December 2002)
Final Report of the STRATA-ETAN Expert Group "Mobilising the regional Foresight potential for an enlarged European Union - an essential contribution to strengthen the strategic basis of the European Research Area (ERA)" established in 2001 with the purpose to explore the potential of regional foresight activities, to build upon and complement other activities aiming at supporting European co-operation in Foresight, to contribute to the European-wide debate on governance and to the involvement of the Candidate Countries in the European integration process. This report presents the conclusions and policy recommendations drawn from the work of the group.
PDF: en - fr - de

"Higher Education and Research for the ERA: Current Trends and Challenges for the near Future" (October 2002)
This report is the final output of a STRATA ETAN High-Level Expert Group, which worked during eight month with several meetings and produced a series of contributions on the future of higher education and research relations. A set of scenarios was designed aiming at proposing concrete recommendations to the Commission and the Members Countries to support the strengthening of the European Research Area.
PDF: de - en - fr



"Thinking, debating and shaping the future: Foresight for Europe" (April 2002)
A High-Level Expert Group was created by the European Commission to focus on "Developing Foresight to strengthen the strategic basis of the European Research Area". This report is the result of the papers and discussions held during the plenary meetings of the HLEG members. The three main parts are (1) the added value of Foresight in today's society; (2) analysis of activities that could/should be developed at European level; (3) practical steps for implementing Foresight in Europe.
PDF: de - en - fr

Monday, April 07, 2008

Foresight Handbook OUT Now!! 

shameless self promotion:

Edward Elgar - The Handbook Of Technology Foresight

published in UK, soon in US. Not cheap but what VFM!







The Handbook Of Technology Foresight
Concepts and Practice



Edited by Luke Georghiou,Jennifer Cassingena Harper,
Michael Keenan, Ian Miles, and Rafael Popper

Contents:







Preface

PART I: THE NATURE OF FORESIGHT
1. The Many Faces of Foresight
Ian Miles, Jennifer Cassingena Harper, Luke Georghiou, Michael Keenan and Rafael Popper

2. From Futures to Foresight
Ian Miles

3. Foresight Methodology
Rafael Popper

PART II: FORESIGHT EXPERIENCE AROUND THE WORLD
4. Foresight in the UK
Michael Keenan and Ian Miles

5. Foresight in France
Rémi Barré

6. Foresight in Germany
Kerstin Cuhls

7. Foresight in the USA
Alan Porter and W. Bradford Ashton

8. Foresight in Japan
Terutaka Kuwahara, Kerstin Cuhls and Luke Georghiou

9. Foresight in Nordic Countries
Annele Eerola and Birte Holst Jørgensen

10. Foresight in Smaller Countries
Patrick Crehan and Jennifer Cassingena Harper

11. Foresight in Industrialising Asia
Ron Johnston and Chatri Sripaipan

12. Foresight in Latin America
Rafael Popper and Javier Medina

13. Foresight in CEE Countries
Attila Havas and Michael Keenan

PART III: POLICY AND MANAGEMENT ISSUES IN FORESIGHT
14. Policy Transfer and Learning
Luke Georghiou and Jennifer Cassingena Harper

15. Scoping and Planning Foresight
Michael Keenan and Ian Miles

16. Evaluation and Impact of Foresight
Luke Georghiou and Michael Keenan

17. New Frontiers: Emerging Foresight
Ian Miles, Jennifer Cassingena Harper, Luke Georghiou, Michael Keenan and Rafael Popper

Index









2008


456 pp
Hardback
978 1 84542 586 9

(paperback coming 2009)






Tuesday, April 01, 2008

delphi study of future professions 



"toni Ahlqvist" "Keys to futures" - Google Search
[PDF]
keys to future teksti.vp
File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat
Toni Ahlqvist. Keys to Futures. Societal Reflections on Developing Key Technologies. and Their Impacts on Human Qualifications ...
julkaisurekisteri.ktm.fi/ktm_jur/ktmjur.nsf/All/FA80571EA0A6E94EC2256D630020BCEC/$file/tura10%20teoeng.pdf

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