FORESIGHT

While trying to figure out just what has happened to Foresight and Horizon Scanning in the UK, which will be covered more in a future post, I revisited useful material posted by DEFRA a few years ago:

Many of the links are broken, but these work (for now):

at http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20071022164356/http://horizonscanning.defra.gov.uk/default.aspx?menu=menu&module=Resources

Baseline Scan
The primary purpose of the baseline scanning project was to provide an evidence base of the key external trends, driving forces, emerging issues and potential 'wildcards' (low probability, high impact events) which could have the greatest impact on Defra's external environment. Note: not all of the appendices are available via this site due to their considerable size. If you would like a copy, please contact the horizon scanning and futures team.     Final Report Baseline Scan Final Report      Final Report Appendices Baseline Scan Final Report Appendices

Glossary

Please follow the link below to a glossary of common horizon scanning and futures terms. If there are any we haven't included that you would like more information on, please do let us know!      Glossary at http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20071022164356/http://horizonscanning.defra.gov.uk/default.aspx?menu=menu&module=Home Outputs from lessons learned review now uploaded! In 2006, the Horizon Scanning and Futures programme entered a year-long period of review and consolidation and commissioned Sparknow, a pioneer in the use of narrative techniques to capture knowledge, to help it review the work thus far and draw out the lessons to belearned. Through a series of events, interviews, discussions and exercises we've gathered countless experiences and insights that tell us how the programme has been run in the past and how our 'critical friends' think it should be run in the future. The lessons we've found are presented in these essays, each of which is a frank and readable summary of our findings on a core 'sticky' question identified by our stakeholders.      Essays: Looking back at looking forwards      Wrapped around the essays, the folder itself also functions as a wallchart, overview and planning tool. It lays out the project ifecycle and places on it the collected advice and hard-won experience of the people who carried out Defra's early futures projects.     Wallchart Project Lifecycle      Defra Definition of Horizon Scanning (2002) “The systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends. Overall, horizon scanning is intended to improve the robustness of Defra’s policies and evidence base.” "The horizon scanning team is a window onto the wider world, it interacts with industry, with the universities and research institutions, and it feeds into the policy divisions by bringing policy people into contact with the people who can help them" - Professor Sir Howard Dalton FRS      Why think about the future? “ We can either stumble into the future and hope it turns out alright or we can try and shape it. To shape it, the first step is to work out what it might look like” - Stephen Ladyman MP, January 2006  “ Uncertainty creates winners and losers. Organisations that want to survive have to adapt” - Kees van der Heijden,Professor of General and Strategic Management at the Graduate Business School of Strathclyde University, Glasgow  “ It is not the strongest of the species who survive, nor the most intelligent; rather it is those most responsive to change” - Charles Darwin "I've done rocket science. I can tell you. Scenario planning is not rocket science" - Peter Schwartz, Co-founder and chairman of the Global Business Network

This has plenty of useful material in it!