Wednesday, December 17, 2014
UK Foresight - Good night?
I have written on the Global Foresight group's page on LinkedIn:
The UK Foresight Programme was reported to be seen internationally as a "gold standard" for large-scale institutional foresight work.So what does its current website say about how it is now valued?
In 2010 I concluded an essay in TFSC - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.07.016 - by commenting:
"Even in the UK, whose TFP (Technology Foresigfht Programme) survived changes in government since the mid-1990s, views articulated in TF work can become political footballs. Specific scenarios or policy suggestions may be portrayed by opponents of the current administration as proving its pernicious intentions. With a new administration preparing major cuts in public expenditure, Foresight may well be vulnerable. The long view is often sacrificed in the face of immediate problems, and several important TF and technology assessment programmes have been destroyed elsewhere by partisan politics. The UK programme has had a major impact on the future orientation of several parts of the UK political system, as well as significantly influencing TFPs elsewhere [7]. It remains to be seen whether the UK programme is sufficiently well-embedded to maintain its current scale and effectiveness. ..."
At the time of writing those words, there were still several projects underway, with systematic methodology, and well documented on www.foresight.gov.uk. (The evolution of this page can be inspected at the wayback machine at www.archive.org) . But today, that webpage has disappeared, and I invite you to inspect what remains, and decide whether my fears were justified.
"Even in the UK, whose TFP (Technology Foresigfht Programme) survived changes in government since the mid-1990s, views articulated in TF work can become political footballs. Specific scenarios or policy suggestions may be portrayed by opponents of the current administration as proving its pernicious intentions. With a new administration preparing major cuts in public expenditure, Foresight may well be vulnerable. The long view is often sacrificed in the face of immediate problems, and several important TF and technology assessment programmes have been destroyed elsewhere by partisan politics. The UK programme has had a major impact on the future orientation of several parts of the UK political system, as well as significantly influencing TFPs elsewhere [7]. It remains to be seen whether the UK programme is sufficiently well-embedded to maintain its current scale and effectiveness. ..."
At the time of writing those words, there were still several projects underway, with systematic methodology, and well documented on www.foresight.gov.uk. (The evolution of this page can be inspected at the wayback machine at www.archive.org) . But today, that webpage has disappeared, and I invite you to inspect what remains, and decide whether my fears were justified.
then I added these comments:
www.foresight.gov.uk (1990s – 2010)
www.bis.gov.uk/foresight (2010-13)
www.gov.uk/government/collections/foresight-projects (2014)